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Arctic Sea Ice Forecast

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2024 Third report


Arctic Sea Ice Information Center, Noriaki KIMURA (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo)

Figure 1: Predicted sea ice distribution on September 10, 2024.
  1. Minimum ice extent will be about 4.70 million square kilometers in September. This is almost the same as in 2021 and 2022.
  2. The Northern Sea Route will open around August 19. The Canadian side except for Canadian archipelago opened on July 20.
Annual change in minimum sea ice extent since 2003
Figure 2: The interannual change of minimum sea ice extent since 2003. Value of 2024 (marked by yellow) is our prediction.
Animation of predicted Arctic sea ice extent from the August 1 to the September 20.
Figure 3: Animation of the predicted sea ice extent from the August 1 to the September 20.
The colored lines indicate the ice edge for 2022 and 2023.
Animation of the daily anomaly of the predicted ice concentration from 2003-2023 mean. Red color shows the area of faster ice retreat. Blue shows the area of slower ice retreat.
Figure 4: Animation of the daily anomaly of the predicted ice concentration from 2003-2023 mean. Red color shows the area of faster ice retreat. Blue shows the area of slower ice retreat.

The Arctic sea ice extent on September 10, when the sea ice minimum will be about 4.70 million square kilometers. This is almost the same as in 2021 and 2022.

Sea ice along the Russian and Canadian sides will retreat at about the same pace as in 2023.

Russian side

The sea ice extent in the East Siberian Sea will retreat to similar to 2023 until late August. The minimum sea ice extent in September will be larger than 2023 and smaller than 2022. Sea ice extent in the Kara Sea and the Laptev Sea will be smaller than 2022 and 2023 as of August 1, and the trend will continue through the minimum period. Compared to the recent 21-year average, sea ice will retreat later than usual in the East Siberian Sea and the Kara Sea, and earlier in the Laptev Sea. The Northern Sea Route will open around August 19.

Canadian side

Sea ice in the Chukchi Sea and the Beaufort Sea will retreat at about the same rate in 2022. Sea routes of the Canadian side opened on July 20.

The prediction was performed using the relationship between sea ice concentration in July and the concentration after August. Daily prediction data can be downloaded here and daily sea ice age distribution data can be downloaded here .

You can also check the daily forecast and sea ice age data (daily and yearly) on Arctic Data archive System (ADS) at National Institute of Polar Research.

Contact

If you have any questions about satellite monitoring of the Arctic Ocean, sea ice forecasting, or the forecasting methods used here, please contact the Arctic Sea Ice Information Center ( ).

The sea ice forecast and its basic research were started in GRENE, continued to ArCS Project, and has been conducted in ArCS II Project since 2020.

Arctic Sea Ice Forecast