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Arctic Sea Ice Forecast

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2017 Second report

Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo

Figure１：Predicted sea ice cover on September 11, 2017.
Figure１：Predicted sea ice cover on September 11, 2017.
  1. Minimum ice extent in September will be about 4.67 million square kilometer.
  2. Ice retreat in the Laptev Sea and Chukchi Sea will be faster than normal years.
  3. Sea routes of Russian side and Canadian side will both open.
    Russian side will open around August 20, and the Canadian side except for Canadian archipelago will open around July 20.
Figure 2：The interannual change of minimum extent since 2003. Value of 2017 is predicted one.
Figure 2：The interannual change of minimum extent since 2003. Value of 2017 is predicted one.
Figure 3：Animation of predicted Arctic ice extent from the July 1 to the September 15.
Figure 3：Animation of predicted Arctic ice extent from the July 1 to the September 15. Yellow and green lines indicates the ice edge of the same day for 2015 and 2016.
Figure 4：Animation of the ice edge (30% of ice concentration) for 2003-2016 (yellow contours) and 2017 (predicted: red contour).
Figure 4：Animation of the ice edge (30% of ice concentration) for 2003-2016 (yellow contours) and 2017 (predicted: red contour).

Sea ice extent on September 11, which is the minimal area phase of Arctic sea ice, is expected to be 4.67 million square kilometer, which is 8% larger than the last year and 2% larger than the first report.

Sea ice in the Laptev Sea and Chukchi Sea is expected to be thin and retreat quickly. On the other hand, sea ice in the East Siberian Sea will retreat slowly with nearly same speed as normal years. Sea routes of the Russian side will open around August 20, which is almost equal to the last year.

On the Canadian side, sea ice in the Beaufort Sea is expected to be thick and retreat slowly compared with the last year. The sea routes of the Canadian side except for Canadian archipelago will open around the July 20.

Prediction map is also available in Arctic Data Archive System of National Institute of Polar Research.

Method of Prediction：Tracking of sea ice from winter to spring

Figure 5：Animation of distributed particles’ movements during December 1, 2015 through May 31, 2016.
Figure 5：Animation of distributed particles’ movements during December 1, 2015 through May 31, 2016. The color bar indicates the thickness of the ice on December 1, 2016.
Figure 6：Distribution of particles for May 31, 2016, which are first arrayed over the ice-covered area on December 1, 2015 and are moved based on the satellite-derived daily-ice velocity.
Figure 6：Distribution of particles for May 31, 2016, which are first arrayed over the ice-covered area on December 1, 2015 and are moved based on the satellite-derived daily-ice velocity. The color bar indicates the thickness of the ice on December 1, 2015.
Figure 7：Distribution of particles for May 31, 2017, which are first arrayed over the ice-covered area on December 1, 2016 and are moved based on the satellite-derived daily-ice velocity.
Figure 7：Distribution of particles for May 31, 2017, which are first arrayed over the ice-covered area on December 1, 2016 and are moved based on the satellite-derived daily-ice velocity. The color bar indicates the thickness of the ice on December 1, 2016.

The way of this prediction is basically same as the first report.

We distributed particles homogeneously over the Arctic sea ice on December 1, and traced the trajectories of the particles to May 31. Based on the relationship (linear regression line) between yearly particle concentration on May 31 and ice concentration on a specific day in summer, we predicted the ice area on the day.

contact

If you have any questions about satellite monitoring of the Arctic Ocean, sea ice forecasting, or the forecasting methods used here, please contact the Sea Ice Information Center（sea_ice@nipr.ac.jp)

The research for this forecast method was started in GRENE Project. The sea ice forecast was conducted in ArCS Project (FY2015-2019).

Arctic Sea Ice Forecast