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Arctic Sea Ice Forecast

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2016 Fall report

Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo

Figure 1. Animation of predicted Arctic ice extent from the October 1 to the November 30.
Figure 1. Animation of predicted Arctic ice extent from the October 1 to the November 30.
  • The Arctic sea ice area will advance with almost same speed of the last year.
    The sea routes of Russian side will close around October 7, and the Canadian side except for Canadian archipelago will close around October 20.
Figure 2. Correlation coefficient between the ice concentration on September 22 and that after October 1.
Figure 2. Correlation coefficient between the ice concentration on September 22 and that after October 1.
Predicted sea ice concentration on October 1.
Predicted sea ice concentration on November 1.
Predicted sea ice concentration on November 30.
Figure 3. Predicted sea ice concentration on October 1, November 1 and November 30.

The Arctic sea ice area is advancing since the seasonal minimum on September 10 with almost same speed of the last year. Sea Routes both Russian and Canadian sides will close by the end of October.

Sea ice concentration in mid-September correlates strongly with that after October (Figure 2). We predicted the Arctic sea ice area from coming October 1 to November 30 based on the ice concentration on September 22, by the linear regression analysis used the data for 2003-2016.

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If you have any questions about satellite monitoring of the Arctic Ocean, sea ice forecasting, or the forecasting methods used here, please contact the Sea Ice Information Center（sea_ice@nipr.ac.jp)

The research for this forecast method was started in GRENE Project. The sea ice forecast was conducted in ArCS Project (FY2015-2019).

Arctic Sea Ice Forecast