2018 Fall Report
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo
- The Arctic sea ice area will advance at almost same speed as the last year. The sea routes of Russian side will close around October 10, and the Canadian side except for Canadian archipelago will close around October 22.
The Arctic sea ice area will start advancing at an early date. Advance speed in October and November will be almost same as the last year.
Sea routes of Russian side will close around October 10, which is one week later than the last year. The route of Canadian side except for Canadian archipelago will close around October 22, which is two weeks earlier than the last year.
We use the Logistic Regression method to predict the ice extent using the ice-free days during March and August. This prediction is basing on the relation between the speeds of summer ice retreat and fall ice advance (see Fall report of the last year).
If you have any questions about satellite monitoring of the Arctic Ocean, sea ice forecasting, or the forecasting methods used here, please contact the Sea Ice Information Center（sea_ice@nipr.ac.jp)
The research for this forecast method was started in GRENE Project. The sea ice forecast was conducted in ArCS Project (FY2015-2019).